The November 6 general election is just around the corner. There is a lot of speculation about the outcomes of these elections with many predicting a “blue wave” that will change the balance of power. At the state level, that could be partly true. The results of the November election are not likely to change the Democrat’s control of the Legislature, but the number of seats the Democrats gain will influence the issues they will tackle in 2019. What is harder to predict is whether the four initiatives on the ballot will bring out voters who would otherwise not engage and if this will make a difference in legislative races.
State Legislative Races
All state legislative House members and half of the Senate are up for election. Currently, Democrats control the Washington State Senate and House by narrow margins. In the Senate, Democrats have a 25 to 24 majority and in the House they have a 50 to 48 majority. (In the Senate, an independent Democrat caucuses with the Republicans and is included in the 24.)
The August primaries showed a “blue wave” for House Democrats in several of the swing districts with Republican incumbents. In nearly 20 races the Democrat challenger finished close behind or ahead of the Republican incumbent. In several of those races turnout was a factor, but it is clear that the Democrats will pick up more seats in the House. Even ten more seats would create a formidable Democrat House majority that will drive a more progressive agenda.
In the State Senate, there are fewer races in play that would change the balance—probably only four. But all the key races, like the House, are in districts that are currently held by Republicans. If the Republicans hold onto their seats, the margin will stay at 25 Democrats, 24 Republicans. If a Democrat challenger wins in two or more of the key races, the Senate Democrats will have an easier time moving their agenda.
Issues in 2019
Education funding will continue to be part of the 2019 discussions. In 2018 the Legislature adopted a “McCleary” fix that realigned state and school district funding through property tax and school levy adjustments. The goal was to shift the responsibility for basic education funding to the state. The Supreme Court agreed with the solution and suspended its oversight. But some school districts are saying they did not get sufficient state funds and there are still inequities. Plus there is some “sticker shock” from state property tax assessments. Many legislators are saying they will revisit the education funding in 2019.
Another issue for 2019 could be new tax revenue. Although the economic picture at the state level is still positive, demands for increased spending on education and mental health, among other things, could make proposals like a capital gains tax on high income earners more of a reality. This capital gains tax is one some Democrats have actively promoted for the last few years. Also, proposals on employee protections and rights are likely to reappear in 2019 and will be easier to pass with enhanced Democrat majorities. On the other hand, prevailing wage laws should not be threatened.
Ballot Measures
There are four initiatives on the November ballot. Three of them will not have a direct impact on the business side for SMACNA contractors. Initiative 1631 will impact the business side for contractors.
Initiative 1631 – Concerns pollution
Initiative 1631 would collect a fee on use of fossil fuels from selected large businesses, electricity, and vehicle fuels. The money would fund pollution reduction and clean energy projects under the oversight of a series of citizen committees.
The positive side for SMACNA businesses is there would likely be increased money spent on energy efficiency. The negative side for SMACNA contractors is the price of gas will increase, initially by an estimated 14 cents a gallon and increasing by two and half times that amount by 2035. Also the price of electricity and natural gas used in homes and commercial businesses will increase as a result of the fees. The Building & Construction Trades Council has concerns about I-1631 because of the cost impacts, particularly the increased cost of vehicle fuel.
Two of the criticisms of I-1631 are that it is imbalanced and complicated. The initiative exempts several large carbon pollution emitting businesses as well as the state’s only coal- fired electric generation plant from paying the fee. It sets up a complicated system for getting the money out to projects that will require review and endorsement by several citizen committees and tribal entities. Overall, proponents say it will reduce carbon pollution and opponents say there are better ways to get that job done. If passed, the carbon fee would be the first in the nation.
The other three initiatives on the ballot are:
Initiative 940 – An act relating to law enforcement
This measure would require more training for law enforcement to on how to handle violent situations and would change the legal standard for when a police officer’s use of deadly force is justified. The Legislature passed a different version of the deadly force standard at the end of the 2018 session. The state Supreme Court found they should have passed the bill as an alternative ballot measure, so the Legislature’s proposal was thrown out.
Initiative 1634 – Concerning taxation of certain items intended for human consumption
This measure would prohibit local governments from imposing taxes or fees on certain foods and beverages. This initiative arises out of the controversy over the City of Seattle’s tax on soda pop and sugary drinks. Most food items sold in grocery stores are exempt from state tax now. That does not include prepared food, candy, bottled water, and soft drinks. I-1634 would bar local governments from imposing a tax or fee on these items, but would not prevent local taxes on alcohol, marijuana, or tobacco and on non-grocery items. It grandfathers in the City of Seattle tax.
Initiative 1639 – Concerning firearms
This measure would require increased background checks, training, age limitations, and waiting periods for sales or delivery of semiautomatic assault rifles. It also creates a new criminal offence for unsafe storage of firearms. Opponents tried to keep this initiative off the ballot because of alleged flaws in the signature petitions, but the Supreme Court rejected their arguments. If the initiative passes, another challenge is likely.
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SMACNA will keep you updated on legislative issues as they evolve during session. If you have questions, please contact the SMACNA office.
